As Obama once again this past week took to the airwaves upon his seemingly permanent throne, he boasted mightily of his job-creating prowess. Of course in real terms, all that was said was little more than braggadocios pomp, but when has that ever stopped a politician from spewing nonsense.
Anyone who pays attention fully understands that most all government figures are either false due to outright incompetence or simply lies put forth in order to fool the people. In the case of unemployment, both of these factors are evident. Without going into detail as to the unemployment report for March, a report with very mixed data to say the least, let’s look at just one factor; temporary census hires. I want to concentrate on the overall effect of census hiring, and over a period of time, not just the 48,000 hired in March.
According to the census bureau’s own site, or see the PDF (here), the "total number of people recruited for 2010 Census operations during fiscal years 2009 and 2010 (as of March 1)" was 3.8 million. "This includes almost 1.2 million people recruited for address canvassing last year." Keep in mind that these are for the most part temporary positions that will probably be eliminated by the end of the 3rd quarter of this year. Just for 2010 alone, the census bureau will hire an additional 870,000 temporary workers, and if there is a large non-response follow-up needed, and this is very likely considering the large numbers not complying, then the census bureau intends to hire 635,000 more. Just what does this mean considering real unemployment?
My best guess is that over the next few months, the federal government will put out positive job growth numbers and claim that employment is in a full rebound. These reports should be heavily scrutinized. If the temporary census hires this year alone are between 1 and 1.5 million, and those jobs are going to disappear later in the year, how will the adjustments made affect the unemployment numbers? Will the reality of this dynamic be hidden or glossed over by those at the top of the heap who stand to lose if the truth is evident?
This probable positive job reporting over the next few months will be deceiving, but in my opinion, nothing will have been resolved in the real job market. In addition, the very negative effects on job creation due to the recently passed and very socialistic "health-care" bill will be problematic, and will continue to put extreme pressure on private sector job creation. In fact, the more that government growth occurs, the more private jobs that will be lost. The extreme pressures of current and future "healthcare" mandates will necessarily cause affected employers to either freeze salaries, stop new hiring or in many cases to eliminate positions in order to survive. Over time, some or many may go completely out of business. This will not be a short-term problem, but will worsen every year as more mandates, higher costs, and fines take effect. What this means is that the health bill will actually add to and deepen real unemployment.
So far, I’ve not mentioned the fact that real unemployment is much higher than reported by the phony U-3 method currently used by the federal government. The "official" reporting showed that March unemployment held at 9.7%, but net of census hiring, it actually rose to 9.8%. This of course is bad enough, but the much more accurate U-6 unemployment calculation rose in March to 16.9%. According to John Williams’ Shadow Government Statistics, total real unemployment (all not working including all discouraged workers) now stands at 21.7%. While some of you may doubt this number, I do not. Regardless of that, there are many more unemployed than the government admits, and this problem is continuing to escalate.
The point to all of this is simply to convey to readers that nothing is what it seems. The government apparatus continues to grow at the expense of the rest of us. If you’re not in bed with the political elite, then you are being harmed. Considering what has happened so far, there is absolutely no reason to believe what comes out of the mouths of anyone in this administration. I believe that any and all rhetoric coming out of Washington D.C. should be taken with a grain of salt, and much due diligence will be necessary to find the truth.
In my opinion, the unemployment "data" reported by government will continue to be manipulated and painted in a more positive tone that it really is. Because of this, things will not be what they seem. To survive the probable turmoil that lies ahead, one must be aware of real facts, and put forth every effort to learn the truth. This will not be easy. It is my opinion that there will not be any jobless recovery, nor could there be, and none should be fooled into thinking that private employment is improving when many indicators say otherwise. None of us knows the future or has a crystal ball, but considering the past and current trends, caution is well advised!
April 5, 2010
Gary D. Barnett [send him mail] is president of Barnett Financial Services, Inc., in Lewistown, Montana.
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